從影響有色(se)金(jin)屬(shu)價(jia)格的(de)短期(qi)因素(su)上看，價(jia)格反(fan)彈的(de)基礎在于：一是(shi)市場對中(zhong)國經濟數據較(jiao)(jiao)差的(de)反(fan)映是(shi)期(qi)待更多刺激措施；二(er)是(shi)原有實體(ti)庫(ku)存處于較(jiao)(jiao)低水平，實體(ti)需求增(zeng)長(chang)的(de)預期(qi)較(jiao)(jiao)為強烈；三是(shi)為了(le)(le)穩(wen)增(zeng)長(chang)，央(yang)行(xing)降息(xi)以及政府希望房地產穩(wen)步增(zeng)長(chang)的(de)語調也刺激了(le)(le)有色(se)金(jin)屬(shu)需求增(zeng)強的(de)預期(qi)的(de)提升(sheng)。
從影響有(you)色金(jin)屬價(jia)(jia)格(ge)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)中期因素上看：關(guan)于(yu)美(mei)(mei)元指數(shu)(shu)(shu)，在美(mei)(mei)元指數(shu)(shu)(shu)前期摸高(gao)至100一(yi)線(xian)后(hou)，一(yi)系列令人失望的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)美(mei)(mei)國(guo)經(jing)濟數(shu)(shu)(shu)據(ju)延緩加息(xi)預期，導致短期走軟(ruan)，但我(wo)們(men)(men)認為，美(mei)(mei)元指數(shu)(shu)(shu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)回(hui)調(diao)可看做(zuo)只是技術(shu)層面的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)回(hui)調(diao)，后(hou)期仍有(you)再上100上方的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可能，美(mei)(mei)元指數(shu)(shu)(shu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)中長期上行趨勢將(jiang)(jiang)壓制有(you)色金(jin)屬價(jia)(jia)格(ge)。另(ling)一(yi)方面，關(guan)于(yu)油價(jia)(jia)近(jin)期的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)大幅反彈，我(wo)們(men)(men)認為，由于(yu)美(mei)(mei)國(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)消(xiao)費結構，油價(jia)(jia)反彈將(jiang)(jiang)直接推動美(mei)(mei)國(guo)通脹數(shu)(shu)(shu)據(ju)，我(wo)們(men)(men)將(jiang)(jiang)在二(er)季度看到(dao)美(mei)(mei)國(guo)通脹數(shu)(shu)(shu)據(ju)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)上漲，這也(ye)撕開了美(mei)(mei)聯儲加息(xi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)最后(hou)一(yi)道屏障(zhang)，所以有(you)色金(jin)屬價(jia)(jia)格(ge)仍將(jiang)(jiang)受到(dao)加息(xi)預期的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)壓制。
從這些因素(su)分析，短期有色金屬仍(reng)將(jiang)處于震(zhen)蕩波(bo)動狀態(tai)，中長期價格仍(reng)將(jiang)受到壓制，將(jiang)呈現(xian)階段高位回落(luo)的態(tai)勢。
【銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)】當前中國經濟(ji)(ji)增長形(xing)勢嚴峻。國內悲觀經濟(ji)(ji)數(shu)據導(dao)致銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)價(jia)(jia)有所(suo)下跌，但在(zai)(zai)穩增長措施出臺的(de)預期增加(jia)下，股(gu)市持(chi)(chi)續(xu)上(shang)漲也給期市帶(dai)來(lai)提振，銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)價(jia)(jia)前期持(chi)(chi)續(xu)反彈。ICSG(國際銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)研(yan)究小(xiao)組)在(zai)(zai)最新的(de)月(yue)(yue)度報告中稱，全球(qiu)精煉銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)市場2月(yue)(yue)份供(gong)應(ying)(ying)過剩(sheng)(sheng)12.2萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸，1月(yue)(yue)供(gong)應(ying)(ying)過剩(sheng)(sheng)3萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸，去(qu)年前兩個月(yue)(yue)供(gong)應(ying)(ying)短(duan)缺14.8萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸。全球(qiu)2月(yue)(yue)份精煉銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)產(chan)量為(wei)175萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸，消費量為(wei)162萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸，2月(yue)(yue)中國保(bao)稅區銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)庫存過剩(sheng)(sheng)12.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸，1月(yue)(yue)過剩(sheng)(sheng)2.8萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸。供(gong)應(ying)(ying)的(de)持(chi)(chi)續(xu)釋放給銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)價(jia)(jia)帶(dai)來(lai)壓力。后期中國銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)需(xu)(xu)求是(shi)(shi)否持(chi)(chi)續(xu)回暖是(shi)(shi)下階段需(xu)(xu)要(yao)持(chi)(chi)續(xu)關注(zhu)的(de)因(yin)素，我(wo)們認為(wei)旺季(ji)不旺淡(dan)季(ji)不淡(dan)仍(reng)將是(shi)(shi)今年的(de)工業(ye)發展主基調。所(suo)以，銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)價(jia)(jia)反彈空間有限。倫(lun)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)指數(shu)將在(zai)(zai)5900-6600維持(chi)(chi)震蕩，滬銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)指數(shu)將在(zai)(zai)42500-48000波(bo)動。
【鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)】供應(ying)方(fang)面(mian)，電解鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)庫存在本周繼(ji)續上(shang)漲，截至4月中旬，中國電解鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)總有效產(chan)能為3667.7萬噸(dun)，運(yun)行(xing)產(chan)能3144.1萬噸(dun)，開工(gong)率85.72%，總運(yun)行(xing)產(chan)能較(jiao)上(shang)周增(zeng)加6萬噸(dun)。需求方(fang)面(mian)，房地(di)產(chan)領域的(de)投資持(chi)續下(xia)降，不足以(yi)支撐消化(hua)日(ri)益增(zeng)長(chang)的(de)電解鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)產(chan)業，而乘(cheng)用(yong)(yong)車月度產(chan)銷量也(ye)較(jiao)低，對鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)的(de)需求所起(qi)到的(de)刺激作用(yong)(yong)有所減弱(ruo)。由于新疆地(di)區(qu)電解鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)產(chan)能持(chi)續增(zeng)多(duo)，而下(xia)游需求依舊(jiu)未(wei)能完全復蘇，因此鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)價仍將(jiang)處于窄幅震蕩的(de)局面(mian)。我們(men)認為，滬鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)指數的(de)運(yun)行(xing)區(qu)間仍將(jiang)維持(chi)在13000-13500元/噸(dun)。
【鋅】國內市場(chang)價格表現(xian)堅(jian)挺(ting)，持貨商低(di)價惜售情緒較為明顯，對現(xian)貨價格形成明顯支撐，貼水始終維持在百(bai)元附(fu)近，進口鋅流(liu)入量減少，利好(hao)現(xian)貨價格繼續保持堅(jian)挺(ting)上(shang)(shang)行。但由于(yu)整體(ti)需求的下降(jiang)，全球鋅庫存(cun)高企，壓(ya)制著鋅價。倫(lun)鋅指數短期(qi)將受到2400一線(xian)的壓(ya)力；滬鋅1507合約上(shang)(shang)方(fang)壓(ya)力17600。
【鉛】倫鉛庫存由于大量注銷倉單的存在，庫存呈下降趨勢，利好鉛價。國內方面，隨著冶煉廠的檢修增加，煉廠庫存已處于低位，再加上看漲惜售，市場貨源更是緊缺，而目前下游鉛蓄電池企業開工依舊較好支撐價格。展望后期，鋰電池的普及將壓縮鉛蓄電池的需求，滬鉛指數短期面臨14000壓力，后期將維持在一個大的下降通道中。
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